There’s a deeper shift happening with AI in the workplace, and it’s not just about who can prompt better.
Most of the early headlines say AI levels the playing field.
It helps the average performer look like a top performer by taking on writing, coding, and drafting. And that’s partially true… for now.
There is some pretty good evidence that:
If your task requires relatively low skill knowledge, AI is an equalizer.
If your task requires high skill knowledge, AI is an amplifier. And those with the greatest skills are creating an even bigger gap when they use AI
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A new working paper offers a longer view (https://bit.ly/4neFDgH)
And it’s worth paying attention to if you lead a team or want to stay valuable in the next decade.
The research suggests we’re on a U-shaped curve:
Right now: AI is replacing “implementation skills.” Everyone can produce decent work fast.
Soon: The differentiator won’t be output. It’ll be judgment.
The skill gap will reopen.
This time based on who knows when to trust the output, where to apply it, and how to act on it.
Two kinds of judgment rise in value:
Opportunity judgment → spotting where AI can (and can’t) be applied.
Payoff judgment → making smart calls with incomplete data.
If this holds, the real talent question for leaders isn’t: “Who knows how to use AI tools?”
It’s: “Who shows good judgment under uncertainty?”
And if you’re an individual contributor?
It’s time to double down on critical thinking, decision-making, and taste.
AI is shifting what counts as rare and valuable.
Judgment has always been valuable. But it might be the next frontier skill.
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As part of my commitment to the UNB’s J Herbert Smith Centre (JHSC) in my role as Entrepreneur in Residence, I will continue to dive into the most recent literature on AI and surface the most significant conclusions for all of you.
